[
Please note: This is
not an endorsement of any candidate or political party or agenda. It does not necessarily indicate how I have personally voted or what I think about issues. This is simply a prediction from a retired political hack, based on polling data, personal contacts, and a few hunches here and there.]
In 1954, the Giants won the World Series. That same year, the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections. They would hold on to the Senate until 1980 and the House until 1994. The Giants would not win the World Series again until 2010.
This year, the Giants victory will again precede a change in leadership in the US Congress. How big and for how long is anybody's guess. Actually, below is this anybody's guess.
This is perhaps the most difficult election to predict based on the fact that the polls are unprecedented. In some studies, Republicans hold such a high "Generic Ballot" lead that its never even been considered what that might mean. On top of that, the number of Democrat incumbents that are still polling below 50%, even if they are still in the lead, presents a possibility of something that has not been seen in over a century.
Many pundits are predicting a repeat of 1994, where the Republicans had a net gain of 52 seats in the House to regain the majority for the first time since Eisenhower. But perhaps 1994 is the wrong century.
In the 1894 midterms, the Republicans won 130 seats in a then 357 member Congress. It was in response to the Panic of 1893 and the perceived failures of the Democratic Cleavland Administration to deal with unemployment and other economic conditions.
I don't think the Republicans are going to win 130 seats in the House. But, as unlikely as it is, it
could happen. Its also possible that this is all overblown, that polling data just isn't as accurate as it once was because of demographic shifts in telecommunication preferences.
Regardless, this will be an interesting one to watch. Below are my predictions, which admittedly, might be way off in either direction. Below them are some commentary. Also, I have a Facebook Group you can join for some Election Day commentary, if I can get around to it...
Click here to join the
Furrowcious Election Day Special on Facebook.
2010 Predictions
US Senate:
Republicans win majority with net gain of 10 seats.
(Totals: Republicans 51, Democrats 47, Independents 2)
Republican - 26 Wins: ID, UT, AZ, AK, OK, KS, SD, IA, MO, LA, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, KY, OH, NH, WI, PA, ND, NV, IN, IL, CO, AR, WV, WA
Democrat - 7 Wins: CA, OR, HI, VT, CT, DE, MD
Independent: None
(All other seats not up for election this year)
State Governors:
Republicans win majority with net gain of 8
(Totals: Republicans 32, Democrats 17, Independent 1)
Republicans - 26 Wins: NV, ID, UT, AZ, TX, NE, SD, AL, GA, SC, CT, AK, TN, PA, OK, OH, NM, MI, ME, KS, IA, IL, WI, WY, FL, MN
Democrats - 10 Wins: CA, HI, VT, OR, CO, AR, NY, NH, MA, MD
Independent - Win: RI
(All other states not holding elections this year)
US House of Representatives:
Republicans win majority with net gain of 82 seats.
(260 Republicans - 175 Democrats)
Interestingly, my research would indicate a 99 seat gain for the Republicans. This is a lot higher than any of the experts, and I didn't research every seat at all, so I'm pulling back a little. I did put the ones I researched below with specific predictions. All other seats will probably keep the incumbent party - although who knows?
Republicans will only lose 2 seats at most I think. Democrats could lose over 100.
Early races to watch:
MA-10 - Republican hasn't held this since 1970, but Scott Brown won by 20 points in January 2010.
NJ-06 - Hugely Democratic district - Obama won it by 23 points, Gore by 28 in 2000. Incumbent Pallone (D) won by 35 points over his Republican rival in 2008. But he's only polling 5% higher this year than his Tea Party opponent Ann Little. I'm predicting a Democrat hold for this seat, however, if Little wins, it will likely mean bigger wins than anyone expects for the GOP. Incidentally, Republican Governor Christie won this district by 8 points in 2009.
BOLD is the incumbent party:
| District | Democrat | Republican | Winner |
| AL-01 | Bright | Roby | Roby |
| AZ-07 | Grijalva | McClung | McClung |
| AZ-08 | Giffords | Kelly | Kelly |
| CT0-4 | Himes | Debicella | Debicella |
| CT-05 | Murphy | Caligiuri | Caligiuri |
| GA-02 | Bishop | Keown | Keown |
| HI-01 | Hanabusa | Djou | Djou |
| ID-01 | Minnick | Labrador | Labrador |
| Il-10 | Seals | Dold | Dold |
| IN-02 | Donnelly | Walorski | Walorski |
| KY-06 | Chandler | Barr | Barr |
| MA-10 | Keating | Perry | Perry |
| ME-01 | Pingree | Scontras | Scontras |
| ME-02 | Michaud | Levesque | Levesque |
| MI-07 | Schauer | Walberg | Walberg |
| MI-09 | Peters | Raczkowski | Raczkowski |
| MN-08 | Oberstar | Cravaack | Cravaack |
| MO-04 | Skelton | Hartzler | Hartzler |
| MS-04 | Taylor | Palazzo | Palazzo |
| NC-11 | Shuler | Miller | Miller |
| NC-02 | Etheridge | Ellmers | Ellmers |
| NC-07 | McIntyre | Pantano | Pantano |
| NY-01 | Bishop | Altschuler | Altschuler |
| NY-13 | McMahon | Grimm | Grimm |
| NY-24 | Arcuri | Hanna | Hanna |
| NY-25 | Maffei | Buerkle | Maffei |
| OH-06 | Wilson | Johnson | Johnson |
| OR-05 | Schrader | Bruun | Bruun |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski | Barletta | Barletta |
| PA-12 | Critz | Burns | Burns |
| PA-07 | Lentz | Meehan | Meehan |
| RI-01 | Cicilline | Loughlin | Loughlin |
| TN-04 | Davis | DesJarlais | DesJarlais |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez | Canseco | Canseco |
| VA-11 | Connolly | Fimian | Fimian |
| VA-09 | Boucher | Griffith | Griffith |
| WA-02 | Larsen | Koster | Larsen |
| WA-03 | Heck | Herrera | Herrera |
| WA-09 | Smith | Muri | Muri |
| WV-01 | Oliverio | McKinley | McKinley |
| NC-08 | Kissell | Johnson | Johnson |
| NM-01 | Heinrich | Barela | Barela |
| NY-19 | Hall | Hayworth | Hayworth |
| CA-18 | Cardoza | Berryhill | Cardoza |
| CA-47 | Sanchez | Tran | Tran |
| CO-07 | Perlmutter | Frazier | Frazier |
| DE-AL | Carney | Urquhart | Carney |
| IA-01 | Braley | Lange | Braley |
| IA-02 | Loebsack | Miller-Meeks | Loebsack |
| IA-03 | Boswell | Zaun | Boswell |
| IL-08 | Bean | Walsh | Walsh |
| KY-03 | Yarmuth | Lally | Lally |
| LA-02 | Richmond | Cao | Richmond |
| MA-04 | Frank | Bielat | Frank |
| MI-15 | Dingell | Steele | Dingell |
| MN-01 | Walz | Demmer | Demmer |
| MO-03 | Carnahan | Martin | Carnahan |
| NH-2 | Kuster | Bass | Bass |
| NJ-12 | Holt | Sipprelle | Holt |
| MN-03 | Lujan | Mullins | Lujan |
| NY-22 | Hinchey | Phillips | Hinchey |
| OH-13 | Sutton | Ganley | Sutton |
| OR-04 | DeFazio | Robinson | Robinson |
| PA-04 | Altmire | Rothfus | Altmire |
| TX-27 | Ortiz | Farenthold | Farenthold |
| UT-02 | Matheson | Philpot | Philpot |
| WI-03 | Kind | Kapanke | Kind |
| WV-03 | Rahall | Maynard | Rahall |
| AZ-04 | Ross | Rankin | Ross |
| CT-01 | Larson | Brickley | Larson |
| CT-02 | Courtney | Peckinpaugh | Courtney |
| GA-12 | Barrow | McKinney | Barrow |
| MA-05 | Tsongas | Golnik | Tsongas |
| MA-06 | Tierney | Hudak | Tierney |
| MN-07 | Peterson | Byberg | Peterson |
| MO-05 | Cleaver | Turk | Cleaver |
| MS-02 | Thompson | Marcy | Thompson |
| NC-13 | Miller | Randall | Miller |
| NC-04 | Price | Lawson | Price |
| NJ-06 | Pallone | Little | Little |
| NY-02 | Israel | Gomezq | Israel |
| NY-27 | Higgins | Roberto | Higgins |
| NY-04 | McCarthy | Becker | Becker |
| OH-10 | Kucinich | Corrigan | Corrigan |
| OK-02 | Boren | Thompson | Boren |
| OR-01 | Wu | Cornilles | Wu |
| PA-13 | Schwartz | Adcock | Schwartz |
| TN-05 | Cooper | Hall | Cooper |
| TX-15 | Hinojosa | Zamora | Hinojosa |
| TX-25 | Doggett | Campbell | Doggett |
| WA-06 | Dicks | Cloud | Cloud |
| AR-01 | Causey | Crawford | Crawford |
| AZ-01 | Kirkpatrick | Gosar | Gosar |
| AZ-03 | Hulburd | Quayle | Quayle |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell | Schweikert | Schweikert |
| CA-11 | McNerney | Harmer | Harmer |
| CA-20 | Costa | Vidak | Vidak |
| CA-03 | Bera | Lungren | Lungren |
| CO-03 | Salazar | Tipton | Tipton |
| CO-04 | Markey | Gardner | Gardner |
| FL-02 | Boyd | Southerland | Southerland |
| FL-22 | Klein | West | West |
| FL-24 | Kosmas | Adams | Adams |
| FL-25 | Garcia | Rivera | Rivera |
| FL-08 | Grayson | Webster | Webster |
| GA-08 | Marshall | Scott | Scott |
| IL-14 | Foster | Hultgren | Hultgren |
| IL-17 | Hare | Schilling | Schilling |
| IN-08 | Van Haaften | Bucshon | Bucshon |
| IN-09 | Hill | Young | Young |
| MD-01 | Kratovil | Harris | Harris |
| MI-01 | McDowell | Benishek | Benishek |
| NC-08 | Kissell | Johnson | Kissell |
| MS-01 | Childers | Nunnelee | Nunnelee |
| ND-AL | Pomeroy | Berg | Berg |
| NH-01 | Shea-Porter | Guinta | Guinta |
| NJ-03 | Adler | Runyan | Runyan |
| NM-02 | Teague | Pearce | Pearce |
| NV-03 | Titus | Heck | Heck |
| NY-20 | Murphy | Gibson | Gibson |
| NY-23 | Owens | Doheny | Doheny |
| OH-10 | Driehaus | Chabot | Chabot |
| OH-16 | Boccieri | Renacci | Renacci |
| OH-18 | Space | Gibbs | Gibbs |
| PA-10 | Carney | Marino | Marino |
| PA-03 | Dahlkemper | Kelly | Kelly |
| PA-06 | Trivedi | Gerlach | Gerlach |
| SC-05 | Spratt | Mulvaney | Mulvaney |
| SD-AL | Herseth Sandlin | Noem | Noem |
| VA-02 | Nye | Rigell | Rigell |
| VA-05 | Perriello | Hurt | Hurt |
| WA-08 | DelBene | Reichert | Reichert |
| WI-07 | Lassa | Duffy | Duffy |
| WI-08 | Kagen | Ribble | Ribble |
| AL-05 | Raby | Brooks | Brooks |
| AR-02 | Elliott | Griffin | Griffin |
| CA-45 | Pougnet | Bono Mack | Bono Mack |
| LA-03 | Sangisetty | Landry | Landry |
| FL-12 | Edwards | Ross | Ross |
| IL-11 | Halvorson | Kinzinger | Kinzinger |
| KS-03 | Moore | Yoder | Yoder |
| MN-06 | Clark | Bachmann | Bachmann |
| NE-02 | White | Terry | Terry |
| NY-29 | Zeller | Reed | Reed |
| OH-12 | Brooks | Tiberi | Tiberi |
| OH-15 | Kilroy | Stivers | Stivers |
| PA-15 | Callahan | Dent | Dent |
| TN-06 | Carter | Black | Black |
| TN-08 | Herron | Fincher | Fincher |
| TX-17 | Edwards | Flores | Flores |
Okay, let's see how it goes...
SCF