Truth - Independent from Ideas

I have much to write about concerning issues observed during our recent election. Mostly, I an troubled with how unconcerned we are about what is actually true, and how reality governs what actually happens. I recently made this statement in an email conversation with a similarly concerned person in my church:

"With the decline of investigative journalism, the politics of scientific funding, and the corruption in the education system, “truth” is left to be revealed only by consequence rather than wisdom and aforethought. Sadly, the Church has not risen above the culture in these matters, and the truth remains hidden until it wreaks havoc with people and the nation."

I'll write more on this, particularly on the role of the Church in society at a later date (read: as soon as I have time to get my thoughts together on this.) Below is a video someone sent me that illustrates this point to some degree. Looks like Peter Schiff took a lot of heat for being right.



Truth - "conformity with fact, or reality."

Reality - "something that exists independently of ideas concerning it."

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Obligatory Lost Announcement

LOST - Catch up by January 21, 2009...

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Election Predictions 2008

[Please note: This is not an endorsement of any candidate and does not necessarily indicate how I have personally voted or what I think about issues. This is simply a prediction from a retired political hack, based on polling data, personal contacts, and a really big guess.]

Well, a lot of pressure this year, as some of you know, this political hack got all 50 states correct in 2004. This year, its much harder to tell. Too many wildly varying polls, too many undecided voters, and too many unknowns. But, most simply, incumbent parties lose in difficult economic times. Any Democrat would likely beat any Republican for that reason alone this year. Obama’s get out the vote efforts are well funded and likely better this year than McCain’s, and that will make the difference in close states, and perhaps turn some unexpected states blue such as Georgia. Because of overwhelming victories in highly populated states, such as California, Obama will win the popular vote, regardless of whether or not he wins the Electoral College and the Presidency.

Early signs that I am way off: If McCain wins Virginia and North Carolina, then be ready for a closer election than my guess here. If McCain wins New Hampshire, then we could be seeing a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.

We could also see a tie. There are several scenarios in this election where a tie is possible, especially if John McCain wins New Hampshire.

Whever there is no majority winner in the Electoral College (270 votes needed to win), the election decided in congress, with the house voting for the President and the Senate for VP. Lots of great scenarios there, including realistic possibility of the House voting for Obama for President, and the Senate voting for Palin as Vice President, creating an Obama/Palin Administration.

Before the financial crisis that has given Obama the huge advantage, I was actually set to predict this situation with a tie, 269-269.  There has never been a tie, and there hasn't been an election decided by the congress since 1824.

Ignore exit polls, early Pennsylvania and Florida returns, and anything at all reported on MSNBC.


Predictions:

Electoral Votes (EV)
Obama – 379 McCain – 159

Popular Vote:
Obama 54.2% McCain 45.6%

MAP: Click here to see my predictions on a map.

State Numbers:

State - Winner - Electoral Votes - Popular Vote Margin

AL – McCain EV: 9 - +19%
AK – McCain EV: 3 - +21%
AZ – McCain EV: 10 - +8%
AR – McCain EV: 6 + 5%
CA – Obama - EV: 55 +18%
CO – Obama - EV: 9 +7%
CT – Obama - EV: 7 +15%
DE – Obama - EV: 3 +28%
DC – Obama – EV: 3 +28%
FL - Obama - EV: 27 +2%
GA – Obama - EV: 15 +2%
HI – Obama - EV: 4 +39%
ID – McCain - EV: 4 +38%
IL – Obama - EV: 21 +20%
IN – McCain - EV: 11 +4%
IA – Obama - EV: 7 +9%
KS – McCain - EV: 6 +18%
KY – McCain - EV: 8 + 14%
LA – McCain - EV: 9 + 10%
ME – Obama - EV: 4 +12%
MD – Obama - EV: 10 + 22%
MA – Obama - EV: 12 +19%
MI – Obama - EV: 17 + 9%
MN – Obama - EV: 10 +8%
MS – McCain - EV: 6 +14%
MO – Obama - EV: 11 +3%
MT - McCain - EV: 3 + 6%
NE – McCain - EV: 5 +21%
NV – Obama - EV: 5 +4%
NH - Obama - EV: 4 + 5%
NJ – Obama - EV: 15 +14%
NM – Obama - EV: 5 +7%
NY – Obama - EV: 31 +22%
NC – Obama - EV: 15 + 1%
ND – McCain - EV: 3 + 5%
OH – Obama - EV: 20 +3%
OK – McCain - EV: 7 +22%
OR – Obama - EV: 7 +17%
PA - Obama - EV: 21 +4%
RI – Obama - EV: 4 +21%
SC - McCain - EV: 8 + 5%
SD – McCain - EV: 3 + 6%
TN – McCain - EV: 11 +21%
TX – McCain - EV: 34 + 7%
UT – McCain - EV: 5 +23%
VA – Obama - EV: 13 +7%
VT – Obama - EV: 3 + 19%
WA – Obama - EV: 11 +14%
WV – McCain - EV: 5 +11%
WI – Obama - EV: 10 +11%
WY - McCain - EV: 3 +22%

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