Nov 4, 2008

Election Predictions 2008

[Please note: This is not an endorsement of any candidate and does not necessarily indicate how I have personally voted or what I think about issues. This is simply a prediction from a retired political hack, based on polling data, personal contacts, and a really big guess.]

Well, a lot of pressure this year, as some of you know, this political hack got all 50 states correct in 2004. This year, its much harder to tell. Too many wildly varying polls, too many undecided voters, and too many unknowns. But, most simply, incumbent parties lose in difficult economic times. Any Democrat would likely beat any Republican for that reason alone this year. Obama’s get out the vote efforts are well funded and likely better this year than McCain’s, and that will make the difference in close states, and perhaps turn some unexpected states blue such as Georgia. Because of overwhelming victories in highly populated states, such as California, Obama will win the popular vote, regardless of whether or not he wins the Electoral College and the Presidency.

Early signs that I am way off: If McCain wins Virginia and North Carolina, then be ready for a closer election than my guess here. If McCain wins New Hampshire, then we could be seeing a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.

We could also see a tie. There are several scenarios in this election where a tie is possible, especially if John McCain wins New Hampshire.

Whever there is no majority winner in the Electoral College (270 votes needed to win), the election decided in congress, with the house voting for the President and the Senate for VP. Lots of great scenarios there, including realistic possibility of the House voting for Obama for President, and the Senate voting for Palin as Vice President, creating an Obama/Palin Administration.

Before the financial crisis that has given Obama the huge advantage, I was actually set to predict this situation with a tie, 269-269.  There has never been a tie, and there hasn't been an election decided by the congress since 1824.

Ignore exit polls, early Pennsylvania and Florida returns, and anything at all reported on MSNBC.


Predictions:

Electoral Votes (EV)
Obama – 379 McCain – 159

Popular Vote:
Obama 54.2% McCain 45.6%

MAP: Click here to see my predictions on a map.

State Numbers:

State - Winner - Electoral Votes - Popular Vote Margin

AL – McCain EV: 9 - +19%
AK – McCain EV: 3 - +21%
AZ – McCain EV: 10 - +8%
AR – McCain EV: 6 + 5%
CA – Obama - EV: 55 +18%
CO – Obama - EV: 9 +7%
CT – Obama - EV: 7 +15%
DE – Obama - EV: 3 +28%
DC – Obama – EV: 3 +28%
FL - Obama - EV: 27 +2%
GA – Obama - EV: 15 +2%
HI – Obama - EV: 4 +39%
ID – McCain - EV: 4 +38%
IL – Obama - EV: 21 +20%
IN – McCain - EV: 11 +4%
IA – Obama - EV: 7 +9%
KS – McCain - EV: 6 +18%
KY – McCain - EV: 8 + 14%
LA – McCain - EV: 9 + 10%
ME – Obama - EV: 4 +12%
MD – Obama - EV: 10 + 22%
MA – Obama - EV: 12 +19%
MI – Obama - EV: 17 + 9%
MN – Obama - EV: 10 +8%
MS – McCain - EV: 6 +14%
MO – Obama - EV: 11 +3%
MT - McCain - EV: 3 + 6%
NE – McCain - EV: 5 +21%
NV – Obama - EV: 5 +4%
NH - Obama - EV: 4 + 5%
NJ – Obama - EV: 15 +14%
NM – Obama - EV: 5 +7%
NY – Obama - EV: 31 +22%
NC – Obama - EV: 15 + 1%
ND – McCain - EV: 3 + 5%
OH – Obama - EV: 20 +3%
OK – McCain - EV: 7 +22%
OR – Obama - EV: 7 +17%
PA - Obama - EV: 21 +4%
RI – Obama - EV: 4 +21%
SC - McCain - EV: 8 + 5%
SD – McCain - EV: 3 + 6%
TN – McCain - EV: 11 +21%
TX – McCain - EV: 34 + 7%
UT – McCain - EV: 5 +23%
VA – Obama - EV: 13 +7%
VT – Obama - EV: 3 + 19%
WA – Obama - EV: 11 +14%
WV – McCain - EV: 5 +11%
WI – Obama - EV: 10 +11%
WY - McCain - EV: 3 +22%

SCF
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